ABSTRACT
Estimating the basic reproduction number (R0) of an infectious disease is a crucial step to describe the contagiousness and provides suggestions for interventions. To lift the effectiveness of preventive measures for the COVID-19 pandemic, we need to minimize the newly infected cases by reaching adequate herd immunity. This study thus aimed to compare the R0 through four waves of COVID-19 outbreaks in Vietnam and to calculate the minimal vaccination coverage in different populations. The data on the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 patients were collected from 21 January 2020 to 16 November 2021 from the daily reports through the four waves of the pandemic in Vietnam. The R0 values were estimated by exponential growth and the maximum likelihood methods to range from 1.04 to 3.31 from the first to the third wave. The fourth wave was the most severe, especially in the southern provinces, and the highest R0 was in Ho Chi Minh City. The herd immunity would range from 43.50% to 95.76% by various R0 values from different populations. Overall, the presence of new viral mutants increased the infectiousness and the vaccination coverage was higher to establish the required herd immunity in a high-density population. The results provide the basis for policy recommendations and resource allocation for vaccine management and distribution at a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is not yet over.
ABSTRACT
Objectives: Two kinds of epidemic surveillance models are presented for containing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants so as to avert and stamp out a community-acquired outbreak (CAO) with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), tests, and vaccination. Design: The surveillance of domestic cluster infections transmitted from imported cases with one-week time lag assessed by the Poisson model and the surveillance of whether, how and when NPIs and test contained the CAO with the SEIR model. Settings: Border and Community of Taiwan. Main Outcome Measurements: The expected number and the upper bound of the 95% credible interval (CrI) of weekly covid-19 cases compared with the observed number for assessing the threshold of a CAO; effective reproductive number (Rt) and the effectiveness of NPIs for containing a CAO. Results: For the period of January-September 2020 when the wild type and the D614G period were prevailing, an increase in one imported case prior to one week would lead to 9.54% (95% CrI 6.44% to 12.59%) higher risk of domestic cluster infection that provides a one-week prior alert signal for more stringent NPIs and active testing locally. Accordingly, there was an absence of CAO until the Alpha VOC period of February 2021. However, given level one of NPI alert the risk of domestic cluster infections was gradually elevated to 14.14% (95% CrI 5.41% to 25.10%), leading to the Alpha VOC CAOs of six hotspots around mid-May 2021. It took two-and-half months for containing this CAO mainly with level three of NPI alert and rapid test and partially by the rolling out of vaccination. By applying the SEIR model, the Rt decreased from 4.0 at beginning to 0.7 on 31 July 2021 in parallel with the escalating NPIs from 30% to 90%. Containing a small outbreak of Delta VOC during this CAO period was also evaluated and demonstrated. After controlling the CAO, it again returned to imported-domestic transmission for Delta VOC from July until September 2021, giving an estimate of 10.16% (95% CrI: 7.01% to 13.59%) for the risk of several small cluster infections. However, there was an absence of CAO that resulted from the effectiveness of NPIs and tests, and the rapid expansion of vaccination. Conclusions: Averting and containing CAOs of SARS-CoV-2 variants are demonstrated by two kinds of epidemic surveillance models that have been applied to Taiwan scenario. These two models can be accommodated to monitor the epidemic of forthcoming emerging SARS-CoV-2 VOCs with various circumstances of vaccine coverage, NPIs, and tests in countries worldwide.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome , Cluster Headache , Communication DisordersABSTRACT
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic emphasizes the need to actively study the virome of unexplained respiratory diseases. We performed viral metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) analysis of 91 nasal-throat swabs from individuals working with animals and with acute respiratory diseases. Fifteen virus RT-PCR-positive samples were included as controls, while the other 76 samples were RT-PCR negative for a wide panel of respiratory pathogens. Eukaryotic viruses detected by mNGS were then screened by PCR (using primers based on mNGS-derived contigs) in all samples to compare viral detection by mNGS versus PCR and assess the utility of mNGS in routine diagnostics. mNGS identified expected human rhinoviruses, enteroviruses, influenza A virus, coronavirus OC43, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) A in 13 of 15 (86.7%) positive control samples. Additionally, rotavirus, torque teno virus, human papillomavirus, human betaherpesvirus 7, cyclovirus, vientovirus, gemycircularvirus, and statovirus were identified through mNGS. Notably, complete genomes of novel cyclovirus, gemycircularvirus, and statovirus were genetically characterized. Using PCR screening, the novel cyclovirus was additionally detected in 5 and the novel gemycircularvirus in 12 of the remaining samples included for mNGS analysis. Our studies therefore provide pioneering data of the virome of acute-respiratory diseases from individuals at risk of zoonotic infections. The mNGS protocol/pipeline applied here is sensitive for the detection of a variety of viruses, including novel ones. More frequent detections of the novel viruses by PCR than by mNGS on the same samples suggests that PCR remains the most sensitive diagnostic test for viruses whose genomes are known. The detection of novel viruses expands our understanding of the respiratory virome of animal-exposed humans and warrant further studies.